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Big Chamomile Hunter

November 4, 2011

photo via funpics47 on Flickr

So I thought about something this morning. There is no clear front runner in the GOP. The field is pretty evenly divided. Lots of candidates are having shit flung at them, and nothing seems to be deterring their popularity (or unpopularity, however you feel it applies). There seem to be two bases at play: Tea Party and older-school GOP conservatives. Let’s say, for the sake of argument, Cain and Romney lead those two packs.

How unlikely would it be if BOTH Cain and Romney ran, Cain as and independent, and Romney winning the GOP nomination? I feel like this primary season will be much tighter than the 2008 one between Clinton and Obama, and this scenario is a distinct possibility (considering that Romney will most likely win, and considering how much very influential aspects of the conservative base dislike Romney. ahem.)

I have a hunch that Obama may not win the majority of the popular vote, but he might win a plurality and enough electoral votes while the GOP’s votes are split on two candidates. 100 years ago in the 1912 election, we saw Wilson get elected thanks to Bull Moose Teddy taking away Taft’s votes. Is the Tea Party the new Bull Moose?

I’m not saying that any of the candidates (conservative or otherwise) are as popular as Teddy Roosevelt, but they may be just as principled or at least suffer from the same hubris.

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